Infinite Growth And The Crisis Cocktail - a guest article

Infinite growth is not possible in any real-world context, yet many otherwise rational people behave - economically speaking - as if they believe that it is possible.

Some time ago I invited Neven- who keeps the Arctic Sea Ice blog and pops up as a commenter on many web sites - to write an article on this topic.  I had read his many comments about it and had been very impressed with his insights.

Arctic Ice March 2011 - Update #1

Edited March 11 2011 - content added below ice prediction chart to address points raised in readers' comments.

The Arctic sea ice extent has grown a little recently.  Ice extent as of  March 10 2011 is  13749688 km² (as reported by IJIS).  Ice extent commonly grows until the end of March.  But any ice which forms now will still be very young, thin, salty ice when the temperatures begin to rise - not forgetting that temperatures are already anomalously high over much of the Arctic.

Some people accept that the world's climate systems are changing, but try to argue that humans are too puny to be any part of the cause.

The reason for putting forward such an argument in the face of a wealth of historical and scientific data seems to be a matter of political agenda: if humans are too puny to cause climate change then they must surely be too puny to put matters right.  It follows that 'right thinking people' should oppose any attempt to 'do something' about climate change - especially at the taxpayers expense.

Arctic Ice March 2011

In April 2010 a late upward blip in Arctic sea ice extent led some bloggers to write about 'recovery'.  The blip was anomalous, hence there is no reason to expect a repetition this year.  On the contrary, it is likely that ice extent will not increase by any significant amount before the 2011 melt season gets fully under way - if it is not under way already.

Arctic Ice 2011 - Sail, Steam and Satellites

The NSIDC will shortly be publishing its report for March 2011.  I expect the report to conclude that Arctic sea ice extent for February 2011 was the 'lowest in the satellite record'.  That would mean the 'lowest ever recorded in human history', since we have abundant data on historic ice extent.

There is a false argument doing the rounds of the blogs: words to the effect that we have no accurate knowledge of ice extent before the age of satellites.  This is, of course, nonsense on stilts in clown boots with a squirting flower - the latter being filled with complete and utter bilge with an admixture of absolute hogwash.