Alternate Representations for Impact Probability = 2.7e-5According to NASA Sentry Earth Impact Monitoring https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/
0.0027% chance of Earth impact
1 in 37,000 odds of impact
99.9973% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth
Improved tracking and more sophisticated modeling techniques have been key in this development. By accounting for the gravitational effects of other bodies in the solar system, astronomers can now predict 2024 YR4’s trajectory with much greater accuracy. These models factor in how even small gravitational nudges from nearby objects can alter an asteroid's course over time.
The challenge of predicting the exact path of any near-Earth object lies in the dynamic and ever-changing nature of our solar system. As 2024 YR4 passes Earth, its course is subtly influenced by the gravitational pull of planets and other asteroids. While these interactions might cause minor fluctuations in its predicted path, the overall trend now shows the rock will continue its harmless journey through space.
In summary, 2024 YR4 is now expected to pass by Earth without incident. Although its trajectory was once uncertain due to multiple potential perturbations, the latest observations have provided reassuring clarity. The global scientific community remains committed to monitoring near-Earth objects, ensuring that any potential threat is identified and addressed well in advance.
References.
https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/2025/02/20/additional-observations-continue-to-reduce-chance-of-asteroid-impact-in-2032/
Comments