According to observations made by NASA using the James Webb Space Telescope, there is a three point eight percent chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the Moon on December 22nd 2032.  This means there is still a 96 percent chance that it will not hit the Moon.  Space is big so it is very easy for objects to not hit each other.  Well, really, it is easy for objects to stay far enough apart that their gravitational fields won't make a collision inevitable.  So this isn't a prediction that the asteroid will hit the Moon, and it is likely that as it travels around the Sun and we get more observations that it will not come close to hitting anything.  


Image courtesy of NASA
What if it does hit the Moon

Let's consider the intriguing possibility that the asteroid will indeed collide with the Moon. What would happen then? The key point to remember is that an impact of this size on the Moon would pose no danger to anyone on Earth. At most, some small rocks might be ejected from the Moon, which could eventually fall to Earth as shooting stars or meteorites in the distant future.

If the asteroid is going to hit the Moon, the most likely scenario is that we will witness a spectacular light show, observable through telescopes and various probes. If I had unlimited resources and could know with absolute certainty when and where on the Moon the asteroid would strike, here are a few things I would do:

1. Launch at least one probe into orbit around the Moon to conduct close observations of its surface.  
2. Deploy a small probe on the asteroid or in its orbit. The goal is not to divert it, but to ride along with the asteroid all the way down, gathering data throughout the journey, Slim Pickens style.   
3. Position a probe at the center of the probability ellipse where we anticipate the asteroid will impact. The area on the Moon likely to be struck by the asteroid will form an elongated ellipse. I would like to have a probe placed directly at this point, or "ground zero," to collect observations from that vantage point as well.  

We should take this opportunity to test every type of science related to asteroid impacts. This is a unique chance to learn as much as we can about these events without risking anyone's safety. While studying an impact on Earth would provide valuable information, allowing an uninhabited celestial body like our Moon to be struck is much more ethical.  

Maybe Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos can get on doing that.  I'm sure learning more about asteroids will help them make 100 trillion dollars.   I take a much less serious tone with this topic because an asteroid hitting the Moon is more or less sciences best case scenario for learning about such impacts up close. 

Using the date and a program called Stellarium I have found what the Moon will look like.  Waning gibbous.  Depending on the direction of impact we might see the Moon like this and then a bright flash in the area that would be dark at this point in time.  
It would be like experiencing the last two solar eclipses but something everyone on the correct side of the Earth to see it can join in on. A sizeable portion of humanity could see the event with their own eyes. 

Reference
https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/04/02/nasa-update-on-the-size-estimate-and-lunar-impact-probability-of-asteroid-2024-yr4/