A Future Look at Today

There are many on-going themes in the large discussion of global warming and replacing fossil fuels with renewable, clean energy. One of the dominant ones is that alternative fuels such as solar are much more expensive than fossil fuels. This argument is often put forth by those entrenched in the status quo of the fossil fuel industry. The general argument is that our entire economic world will take a hit if we use solar as it is so much more expensive that oil.
There was a recent news story here at ScientificBlogging saying that it will take another ten years for solar energy to be price-competitive with fossil fuels.

In the last 20 years, physicists have, after drilling down into ever smaller particles of matter come to this conclusion, that everything is energy This, to some degree confirms some of the underpinnings of eastern philosophies and religions.

If everything is energy then the century long human behavior of equating energy to fossil fuels is put into proper perspective: an incredibly narrow viewpoint. We are now entering a new age called the Shift Age One of the characteristics of the Shift Age is that it will become known as the time when all kinds of alternative and renewable sources of energy will be utilized and will gradually and then rapidly replace the consumption of fossil fuels.

Brasilia is the futuristic capitol of Brazil. It has been so since 1960 when the federal government moved there from Rio de Janeiro. I recently spent two days there and it is truly magnificent. It has been a place I have wanted to visit almost my entire life, but more on that later.

First it is important to briefly tell the story of its creation as it is all about vision and how vision can project humanity into the future. The population of Brazil, since colonization by the Portuguese, has always been predominately oriented to the Atlantic coast, where the majority of Brazilians still reside. The country is the fifth largest in the world in terms of land mass.

It is generally accepted that America could immediately reduce energy consumption by at least 20% if intelligent conservation efforts were implemented at all levels.

As a country, we established energy use habits decades ago when all forms of energy were relatively cheap.

Lights on in high rise building at night, corridors in hotels and office buildings that are almost painfully bright, lights on in empty rooms and offices, and escalators that move even when no one is on them. This all came back to me on a recent trip to Brazil.

  I have written several columns about cell phones in the past.  Each one was due to milestones of growth.  The speed of growth in the use of cell phones continues to be astounding.  It was announced last week by the International Telecommunication Union that the number of total global cell phone subscribers will exceed the number of non-subscribers for the first time in 2008. 

  In the last post I suggested that the U.S. learn from Europe in the use of high speed trains as a core component of a national transportation system.  Trains are more energy efficient than cars, give off far less greenhouse emissions than airplanes, rarely get cancelled or delayed due to ‘weather’ or ‘flow control’ and depart and arrive near the central city.  Given that America is much larger than any country currently utilizing high speed trains, it can only be a part of the transportation mix.  What might the composite national transportation profile look like in 2015?

High speed trains must, and will become an essential component of the U.S. transportation system during the next 20 years. This seems to be obvious, but is something that the (lack of) leadership in Washington D.C. has yet to seriously consider.  A combination of lack of vision, deeply entrenched vested interests, a troubled Amtrak system and a ‘not invented here’ mindset has combined to allow the U.S. to be woefully behind the curve when it comes to both rail transport and an intelligent, integrated national transportation system.

Flying has become an extremely unpleasant and unreliable travel experience. In addition it is a large contributor to greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.  Predicated on cheap oil, high prices and customer service, the airline business must now operate in an environment of expensive oil, low prices and a general lack of quality customer service not to mention cancellations and poor on-time performance. At the other end of the transportation spectrum, automobile travel is undergoing change due to increasing price of gasoline.  Gasoline prices consistently over $3 means that in addition to looking for a high MPG when buying a new car, people will think twice before making a long road trip and will increasingly find that commuting by car is adversely affecting the household budget.

The price of oil topped $100 on January 2 and again on January 3. During the days since I have received emails and phone calls from regular readers, complimenting me on my correct prediction.

  Happy New Year to all of you that are regular readers of this blog and to those of you who might be coming to it the first time.  May 2008 be a happy year for everyone.  I can promise that it will be another year of upheaval and change, probably exceeding 2007 in that regard.  I will submit to you my annual predictions, both general and specific, for the year within the next two weeks.  Right now I would like to take a quick look at several late in the year developments of 2007 that provide indication as to where we are going and what will lay ahead for us in 2008.

In this latest installment of our on-going series of interviews with some of the leading thinkers and scientists on the subject of energy, we interview Dr. Thomas Valone.Facing and solving the multiple issues concerning energy is the single most pressing problem that we face as a species. There is a lot of media coverage about energy, alternative energy and global warming, but what has been missing is the knowledge and point of view of scientists, at least in the main stream media.Dr. Thomas Valone is a physicist and licensed professional engineer with 30 years professional experience, is a patent examiner, research engineer, instrumentation designer and also an author, lecturer, and consultant on future energy developments. He is President and founder of Integrity Research Institute and formerly a community college teacher and a Research Director for Scott Aviation-ATO, Inc. He helped design the HullCom® for naval intraship communication, a 60 Hz gaussmeter without harmonic distortion, two bioelectric therapy devices, and a dental mercury vapor ionizer-precipitator.

  Bali is a word that in 10-15 years I hope will represent and define the time when humanity made an essential shift in direction.  There are currently some 10,000 people attending the United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Bali.  More than 180 countries are represented along with numerous attendees from non-governmental, intergovernmental groups and of course the media.  The general reason for the meeting is to start work on the replacement of the Kyoto accord to address the issue of greenhouse gas emissions which expires in 2012.

The impact that humanity is having on climate change is directly related to the fact that there are so many of us. Add on top of our shear numbers the fact that we treat the planet harshly and it is clear why we are moving toward a global crisis.