"One of the lesser-known branches of climatology is historical climatology, the study of past climates from historical records of instrumental observations and weather descriptions, ..."
Vicky Slonosky
It should be so obvious as not to need stating that before the era of global satellite coverage we did not have a continuous record of global climate data. However, we do have a very extensive record of climate data from across the entire globe dating back to the age of exploration. We can go back even further in time to the records and philosophical musings of the Ancient Greeks, and before them, the Persians in the 6th century B.C. Accordingly, the idea that we somehow have no knowledge, or no worthwhile knowledge, of climate before the satellite era is false.
The history of climate science begins with the invention of writing, which allowed the keeping of records and the later analysis of that information. Long before the Ancient Greeks puzzled over the seven klima - the seven zones assumed to arise from the inclination of the planet with respect to the celestial sphere - people had been trying to forecast the weather.
We don't have the exact details, but we have a record of a certain Joseph who was such a good weather forecaster that he made a pile of money out of a 7 year glut by going around Egypt buying up all the grain, which he then sold for a few shekels profit during the succeeding 7 year famine. Is it possible, I wonder, that equally shrewd investors might make money out of the current global warming problem?
Much nearer to us in time we have the golden age of exploration when adventurers sought new lands, new natural resources and new ways to make a profit. In their travels they kept logs and journals, with every ship a traveling observatory. As exploration advanced, the adventurers formed trading companies such as the Hudson's Bay Company and the Muscovy Company. Many of the records kept by the explorers and the trading companies still survive.
Historical records are of inestimable value to climate researchers: the more we know about the past, the more accurately we can predict the future. As these handwritten documents are transcribed we are acquiring a valuable resource covering all sorts of climate related data. We have, not just direct observations of climate, but observations of the things that are affected by climate. For example: species migrations. As regional climates change, migratory species gradually change their routes, destinations or timings. Maps of these changes are useful proxies for maps of temperature changes. Through examination of records going back to the 1550s for the area in which the Muscovy Company traded, and to the 1660s for trading and exploration in Hudson Bay, we can extract historic regional climate data. The map below is shown as an example of the extraction of climate data from bird migrations.
Map of changes in onset of spring constructed from barnacle goose migratory routes.
The age of flight provides us with yet more data of scientific value. Balloonists and aviators have commonly recorded their in-flight observations of weather. Commercial aviators kept commercial records. Weather observations had commercial value and records were meticulously kept. From the examination of flight records we can recover information about wind speeds: on regular routes using a single aircraft type, variations in flight duration can be analyzed to deduce wind speeds.
In short, we have data from multiple historic periods, multiple climatic regions, from multiple sources and across multiple disciplines. This data is more than sufficient to reveal long term patterns of climate change. Taken together with climate proxies from trees, corals, sediment cores, ice cores and countless other sources the global climate record is by no means limited to the satellite era.
Records of warming
Multiple observers have recorded multiple instances of warmer or cooler climatic episodes. This is what might be expected: people depend on stable regional climates for their regular supply of food and water, and anything which might enhance or damage that supply is of vital interest. Two examples of reported warming, from 1838 and 1922, are given in the hope of dispelling the myth that we do not have accurate knowledge about climate prior to the age of satellites.
All my attention for recent years has been directed to that branch of meteorology connected with ascertaining the mean temperature of Lower Canada. I had not made up my mind as to the fact of the climate having materially altered but was impressed generally with the belief that the climate had improved, or become warmer, as it had increased in population and cultivation … I resolved to make diligent search for such records as might be found in the Province, in order to answer this interesting question.The following is a full transcription of a report from the U.S. Consul in Bergen, Norway, 1922. It is important to note that the term 'Arctic' is often used very loosely. Within the context of the report, the term 'Arctic' refers to waters around Norway, Spirsbergen and Bear Island which are affected by the Gulf Stream. Despite the obviously restricted context, this report has been used by deniers of Arctic warming as "evidence" that the Arctic was warmer in 1922 - presumably hoping that the term 'Arctic' will be taken by their followers to mean the entirety of the Arctic.
John Samuel McCord, acc. 0882, McCord Museum of Canadian History Archives,
circa 1838.
Source:
Rescuing data - guest commentary by Vicky Slonosky
Real Climate
Monthly Weather Review November 1922With so many historical records available from so many sources, together with so many scientifically validated physical proxies for climate data, we should be asking why anyone would want to claim that we don't have any reliable climate data prior to 1979.
The Changing Arctic
By George Nicolas Ifft.
(Under date of October 10, 1922, the American Consul at Bergen, Norway, submitted the following report to the State Department, Washington D.C.)
The Arctic seems to be warming up. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas about Spitsbergen and the eastern Arctic, all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, and hitherto unheard-of high temperatures in that part of the earth's surface.
In August, 1922, the Norwegian Department of Commerce sent an expedition to Spitsbergen and Bear Island under the leadership of Dr. Adolf Hoel, lecturer on geology at the University of Christiania. Its purpose was to survey and chart the lands adjacent to the Norwegian mines on those islands, take soundings of the adjacent waters, and make other oceanographic investigations.
Dr. Hoel, who has just returned, reports the location of hitherto unknown coal deposits on the eastern shores of Advent Bay — deposits of vast extent and superior quality. This is regarded as of first importance, as so far most of the coal mined by the Norwegian companies on those islands has not been of the best quality.
The Oceanographic observations have, however, been even more interesting. Ice conditions were exceptional. In fact, so little ice has never before been noted. The expedition all but established a record, sailing as far north as 81o 29' in ice-free water. This is the farthest north ever reached with modern oceanographic apparatus.
The character of the waters of the great polar basin has heretofore been practically unknown. Dr. Hoel reports that he made a section of the Gulf Stream at 81° north latitude and took soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters. These show the Gulf Stream very warm, and it could be traced as a surface current till beyond the 81st parallel. The warmth of the waters makes it probable that the favorable ice conditions will continue for some time.
Later a section was taken of the Gulf Stream off Bear Island and off the Isfjord, as well as a section of the cold current that comes down along the west coast of Spitsbergen off the south cape.
In connection with Dr. Hoel's report, it is of interest to note the unusually warm summer in Arctic Norway and the observations of Capt. Martin Ingebrigsten, who has sailed the eastern Arctic for 54 years past. He says that he first noted warmer conditions in 1918, that since that time it has steadily gotten warmer, and that to-day the Arctic of that region is not recognizable as the same region of 1868 to 1917.
Many old landmarks are so changed as to be unrecognizable. Where formerly great masses of ice were found, there are now often moraines, accumulations of earth and stones. At many points where glaciers formerly extended far into the sea they have entirely disappeared.
The change in temperature, says Captain Ingebrigtsen, has also brought about great change in the flora and fauna of the Arctic. This summer he sought for white fish in Spitsbergen waters. Formerly great shoals of them were found there. This year he saw none, although he visited all the old fishing grounds.
There, were few seal in Spitzbergen waters this year, the catch being far under the average, This, however, did not surprise the captain. He pointed out that formerly the waters about Spitsbergen held an even summer temperature of about 3o Celsius; this year recorded temperatures up to 15o, and last winter the ocean did not freeze over even on the north east of Spitsbergen.
With the disappearance of white fish and seal has come other life in these waters. This year herring in great shoals were found along the west coast of Spitsbergen, all the way from the fry to the veritable great herring. Shoals of smelt were also met with.
Houston - we have a problem!
Military science is a lot older than modern science, as are it's tools. Logic and rhetoric are new kids on the block compared with data analysis. Historical records show that the military power with the best intelligence gathering and analysis skills would usually be the victor in a contest of arms.
The U.S.military have used tools improved by centuries of refinement to examine the scientific evidence relating to global warming and climate change. They aren't persuaded by rhetoric, only cold hard facts.
And their conclusion is? Climate change is as real as bullets.
Further reading:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/from-the-halls-of-montezuma.html
Image source:
Migratory connectivity in Arctic geese: spring stopovers are the weak links in meeting targets for breeding
R. H. Drent, G. Eichhorn, A. Flagstad, A. J. Van der Graaf, K. E. Litvin and J. Stahl
Journal of Ornithology
Volume 148, Supplement 2, 501-514, DOI: 10.1007/s10336-007-0223-4
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