Voter turnout was huge in 2008 - some of that was due to advertising; since Sen. Obama did not limit adhere to campaign finance reform rules the way Sen. McCain did, Obama was able to raise and spend more money than Bush and Kerry did in 2004 combined, spending twice as much as his opponent.    But a large part of that was message also, and it led to 64% of eligible voters showing up, the highest turnout since the 1960s.

The youth vote was also larger in 2008 than in recent previous elections and college students on the left voted more than those on the right, according to new data released by the Higher Education Research Institute (HERI) at UCLA, while independent college students voted the least in 2008 but self-professed neutral students were 39% of the total.  Conservatives were the distant minority among college students, as is well known. 

Researchers at HERI analyzed data from separate nationwide surveys, one of students who were freshmen in fall 2008 and the other of seniors. The surveys were administered by the Cooperative Institutional Research Program, housed at the institute.   What they found, aside from more differing vote rates for self-professed progressive students over conservatives, was that seniors were somewhat more likely than freshmen to vote (75.3% versus 81.4%)and Asians were the demographic group least likely to vote, though they also had the most 'neutral' designations.   Not surprisingly, the researchers note, black students voted at a very high level (85.6%) in 2008.   Women also voted more than men (77.1% to 71.5%).

So what happened in 2010?   It's going to be a hot topic and some of the decline will be due to mid-term elections rather than a presidential one but young people also don't have to vote the way older people do because they have a greater vested interest in immediate decisions, so they likely become disenfranchised rather easily.

Young people can also be inconsistent.   College students have been overwhelmingly progressive for decades but while they helped Clinton and Obama in other youth spike years they were no benefit at all to Mondale and appealing to 'freak power' by McGovern in 1972 had a backlash effect that led to a landslide for Richard Nixon.

Democratic strategists will be sifting through data until 2012 trying to figure out how a core constituency disappeared but the message should be clear for both sides - deliver on your promises or you won't get the vote again.