The Conversation

The Conversation

The Conversation

The Conversation is an independent source of news and views, funded by the academic and research community and delivered direct to the public. The Conversation launched in Australia in March 2011.
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Why Predicting A Flu Outbreak Is Like Flipping A Coin

Why Predicting A Flu Outbreak Is Like Flipping A Coin

We humans have an innate tendency to recognize patterns. This ability has helped us survive by learning important skills such as how to distinguish danger (predators and poisonous plants, for instance) from important resources (food sources and safe shelter) and knowing the right time of year to plant crops.But the same ability can sometimes convince us we’re seeing a meaningful pattern when it isn’t there. Gamblers detect “patterns” in lottery numbers and roulette wheels, fortune tellers detect “meaning” in chance events and weave a story. As a society we carry all kinds of similar superstitions, such as “bad things happen in threes.”

What Can You Believe In An Open Access Journal World?

What Can You Believe In An Open Access Journal World?

It’s never been easy for readers to know what to believe in academic research. The entire history of science publishing has been riddled with controversy and debate from its very beginning when Hobbes and Boyle, scientists at the Royal Society in London, argued over the scientific method itself.Even a cursory glance at academic publishing since then shows articles contradicting each others’ findings, papers subsequently shown to contain half truths (even in the serious matter of clinical trials) and yet more that are simply fabricated. Shaky and controversial results have been a part of science since it began to be documented.

Science Lost One Of Its Greatest Minds In The Trenches Of Gallipoli

Science Lost One Of Its Greatest Minds In The Trenches Of Gallipoli

August 10, 1915. The Gallipoli sun beats down on the back of a Turkish sharpshooter. He is patient and used to the discomfort. He wipes the sweat from his eyes and peers back down the sight of his rifle, sweeping back and forth across the enemy lines. He’s hoping to spot a target worth taking a shot at as each muzzle flash risks giving his position away.His sight settles on the shoulder pip of a second lieutenant. The target bends down out of sight, then reappears, now with a phone at his ear. He stands still as he sends his dispatch. It’s an easy shot for the sniper. He squeezes the trigger and yet another young man dies.

Why Animal Pupils Come In Different Shapes And Sizes

Why Animal Pupils Come In Different Shapes And Sizes

Wolves and foxes are closely related and share many of the same characteristics. But look at their eyes – where wolves have rounded pupils like humans, foxes instead have a thin vertical line. But it isn’t just canines –across the animal kingdom, pupils come in all shapes and sizes. So why the differences?It’s a question that has long interested scientists working on vision and optics. In a new study published in the journal Science Advances, colleagues from Durham, Berkeley and I explain why these pupil shapes have developed.

Stop Making Energy More Expensive, Invest In The Technologies Of Tomorrow

Stop Making Energy More Expensive, Invest In The Technologies Of Tomorrow

Democrats (myself included) enjoy ridiculing Republicans who deny the scientific consensus behind climate change. But we then deny the inconvenient truth behind our own preferred climate policies: they will have regressive impacts on the poor and middle class.The Energy Information Agency (EIA) projected in May that President Obama’s new Clean Power Plan (CPP) will lead to retail electricity prices 3%-7% higher for the nation as a whole in 2020-25, before falling to “near-baseline” levels in 2030. Yet speaking in the White House on August 3, the president denied the CPP would “cost you more money.”

More Biofuels Will Lead To Water Shortages

More Biofuels Will Lead To Water Shortages

Climate change mitigation could actually increase water shortage in some areas rather than reduce it, according to new research. The source of the problem is clear: greater demand for biofuels, intended to reduce emissions from fossil fuels, requires massive increases in irrigation in productive but relatively arid American farmland.

Mind-Controlling Wasps Enslave Zombie Spiders

Mind-Controlling Wasps Enslave Zombie Spiders

People associate wasps with memories of picnic invasions, BBQs under siege, and painful stings. There is a lot more to these much-maligned insects though, and with more than 100,000 different species, their life histories range from the quietly unobtrusive to the bizarre and gruesome. A new study in the Journal of Experimental Biology documents one such disturbing example of wasp larvae that takes control of their unfortunate spider hosts.

In The Government-Funded Big Science World, We Don't Value Cross-Disciplinary Research

In The Government-Funded Big Science World, We Don't Value Cross-Disciplinary Research

Until the early 1900s, scholars took it for granted that they could draw on any area of knowledge to inform their thinking on the major questions of the day. Medieval polymaths such as Hildegard of Bingen (medicine, linguistics, botany, art, philosophy and music) opened the door to Victorian scholars such as Temple Chevallier (astronomy, theology and maths) and Thomas Young (medicine, physics, music and Egyptology).

War On Fun: Banning Legal Highs A New Low For Freedom

War On Fun: Banning Legal Highs A New Low For Freedom

Most of us would choose to experience pleasure – however we may define it – as often as possible. The public health and criminal justice systems are set up by the government partly to shape how, when and where we find pleasure, so that we balance our enjoyment with working and paying taxes.

We're Overdosing On Medicine: Time To Embrace Uncertainty Instead

We're Overdosing On Medicine: Time To Embrace Uncertainty Instead

The more we learn about the problem of too much medicine and what’s driving it, the harder it seems to imagine effective solutions. Winding back unnecessary tests and treatments will require a raft of reforms across medical research, education and regulation.But to enable those reforms to take root, we may need to cultivate a fundamental shift in our thinking about the limits of medicine. It’s time to free ourselves from the dangerous fantasy that medical technology can deliver us from the realities of uncertainty, aging and death.

What If We Can 'Pre-Diagnose' Autism In Babies?

What If We Can 'Pre-Diagnose' Autism In Babies?

For children with autism, early intervention is critical. Therapies and education – especially in the first two years of life – can facilitate a child’s social development, reduce familial stress and ultimately improve quality of life.But while we can reliably diagnose autism spectrum disorder (ASD) at 24 months, most children are diagnosed much later.

How Viruses Fool The Immune System

How Viruses Fool The Immune System

The immune system protects us from the constant onslaught of viruses, bacteria and other types of pathogens we encounter throughout life. It also remembers past infections so it can fight them off more easily the next time we encounter them.But the immune system can sometimes misbehave. It can start attacking its own proteins, rather than the infection, causing autoimmunity. Or, it can effectively respond to one variant of a virus, but then is unable to stop another variant of the virus. This is termed the original antigenic sin (OAS).