A study about predicting the outcome of actual conflicts found that the forecasts of experts are little better than those of novices, according to a new study.
When presented with actual crises, such as a disguised version of a 1970s border dispute between Iraq and Syria and an unfolding dispute between football players and management, experts were able to forecast the decisions the parties made in only 32% of the cases, little better than the 29% scored by undergraduate students. Chance guesses at the outcomes would be right 28% of the time.
Kesten C. Green of Monash University in Australia says, “Political leaders in the West are pondering how best to deal with the threat of the Iranian government’s nuclear ambitions.