More than 55 million cosmetic surgery procedures will be performed in 2015, predicts a recent study in Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, the journal of the American Society of Plastic Surgeons (ASPS).

That's 4 times the number of procedures performed in 2005. Pushing this growth is what you might expect - marketing and vanity.

The study's findings are great news for the plastic surgery industry but the ASPS suggests caution to current and future patients. While cosmetic procedures seem lower risk than ever and are easy to access, they are not a cure-all for many patients, and choosing a surgeon with the training to perform all procedures, from non-invasive therapies to surgery, can mean the difference between achieving desired results and requiring more procedures down the road.

"While today's economy reflects a slow-down in plastic surgery procedures, the specialty will weather the current decline in economic growth just as it has previous declines, such as the stock market correction after the 2001 Internet bubble," said ASPS President Richard D'Amico, MD. "This prediction for 2015 is exciting.

"Our concern is that with predicted growth and interest in the broad spectrum of cosmetic procedures, patients will look to the closest, easiest solution," said D'Amico. "Potential patients, however, need to know that board-certified plastic surgeons are uniquely qualified with an in-depth medical knowledge of the entire human body. They have the training necessary to accurately assess your individual needs and map health and beauty goals for your entire lifetime."

In the study, the authors analyzed annual ASPS National Clearinghouse of Plastic Surgery statistics from 1992 – 2005. They also analyzed the ability of economic and non-economic variables to predict cosmetic surgery procedure volume. Finally, they used growth rate analyses to construct models with which to predict the future growth of cosmetic surgery.

The study found the next decade of growth in cosmetic surgery will continue to be driven by the growth of non-surgical procedures. Between 1992 and 2005, the compound annual growth rate was 7.5 percent for surgical procedures and 27.9 for non-surgical procedures, the study noted. In 2005, 34 percent of procedures performed by ASPS Member Surgeons were surgical procedures and 66 percent were non-surgical. In 2005, for non-ASPS members 9.5 percent of their procedures were surgical, while 90.5 percent were non-surgical.

For ASPS members, 12 percent of the procedures they perform will be surgical and 88 percent will be non-surgical in 2015. For non ASPS physicians surgical procedures will make up only 3 percent of their total procedures, while 97 percent will be non-surgical in 2015, the study forecasts.